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La Liga · Spain
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Rayo Vallecano host Athletic Club in the La Liga (Spain) on 10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Rayo Vallecano had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 23. Athletic Club had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Rayo Vallecano's last 10 and 4 of Athletic Club's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Rayo Vallecano averaged 1.89 goals scored and 0.89 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Athletic Club averaged 2.43 scored and 1.43 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.35 goals from Rayo Vallecano and 1.54 from Athletic Club. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 41%, against 35%, 28% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Rayo Vallecano (green) and Athletic Club (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | DWLWL | 1.50 | 2.30 | 90% | 80% |
| Athletic Club | DDWWL | 1.20 | 1.30 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.