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Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Spain
Rayo Vallecano II vs Trival Valderas prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Rayo Vallecano II host Trival Valderas in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Trival Valderas to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Rayo Vallecano II 1–0 Trival Valderas.
Going into the match, Rayo Vallecano II had won 1, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 9 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 22. Trival Valderas had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Rayo Vallecano II's last 9 and 6 of Trival Valderas's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Rayo Vallecano II averaged 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Trival Valderas averaged 1.00 scored and 0.43 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.96 goals from Rayo Vallecano II and 1.76 from Trival Valderas. From that it rates a home win at 19%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 55%, against 26%, 28% and 46% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Rayo Vallecano II (green) and Trival Valderas (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano II | LLLLD | 1.00 | 2.44 | 56% | 78% |
| Trival Valderas | WWDDW | 1.20 | 0.80 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.39 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 2.00 |
| Trival Valderas Win | 45% | 1.95 |
| Trival Valderas HT & FT | 29% | 3.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.