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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
Rayo Majadahonda vs Real Murcia prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Rayo Majadahonda host Real Murcia in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Rayo Majadahonda 0–1 Real Murcia.
Going into the match, Rayo Majadahonda had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Real Murcia had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Rayo Majadahonda's last 10 and 6 of Real Murcia's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Rayo Majadahonda averaged 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Real Murcia averaged 1.38 scored and 1.46 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.82 goals from Rayo Majadahonda and 0.87 from Real Murcia. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 37% and an away win at 33%, against 37%, 30% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Rayo Majadahonda (green) and Real Murcia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Majadahonda | LLWDL | 1.00 | 0.80 | 40% | 30% |
| Real Murcia | LWLWD | 1.40 | 1.30 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.