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La Liga · Spain
Racing Santander vs Valencia prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Racing Santander host Valencia in the La Liga (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Racing Santander 2–2 Valencia.
Going into the match, Racing Santander had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 26. Valencia had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Racing Santander's last 10 and 4 of Valencia's last 10; 8 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Racing Santander averaged 2.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Valencia averaged 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.69 goals from Racing Santander and 1.36 from Valencia. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 30%, against 41%, 27% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Racing Santander (green) and Valencia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | LLWLW | 1.60 | 2.60 | 70% | 80% |
| Valencia | LWLLL | 0.60 | 1.70 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.