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Primera División · Uruguay
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Racing Montevideo host Penarol in the Primera División (Uruguay) on 4 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Racing Montevideo 0–1 Penarol.
Going into the match, Racing Montevideo had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 13. Penarol had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Racing Montevideo's last 10 and 6 of Penarol's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Racing Montevideo averaged 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Penarol averaged 1.36 scored and 0.93 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.78 goals from Racing Montevideo and 1.18 from Penarol. From that it rates a home win at 23%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 44%, against 26%, 30% and 45% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Racing Montevideo (green) and Penarol (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Montevideo | LDLWL | 1.10 | 1.30 | 40% | 50% |
| Penarol | DWDWW | 1.60 | 0.80 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 13 Jul 2026 · Racing Montevideo 1–1 Penarol
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Penarol Win | 45% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.