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Championship · England
QPR vs Derby prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
QPR host Derby in the Championship (England) on 14 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: QPR 4–1 Derby.
Going into the match, QPR had won 3, drawn 6 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Derby had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of QPR's last 10 and 6 of Derby's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home QPR averaged 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Derby averaged 1.33 scored and 1.50 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.95 goals from QPR and 0.69 from Derby. From that it rates a home win at 66%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 11%, against 57%, 24% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between QPR (green) and Derby (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 Apr 2026 · QPR 2–3 Derby
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| QPR Win | 57% | 1.65 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.