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Liga MX · Mexico
Puebla vs Leon prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Puebla host Leon in the Liga MX (Mexico) on 10 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Puebla 1–1 Leon.
Going into the match, Puebla had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 20. Leon had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Puebla's last 10 and 5 of Leon's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Puebla averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Leon averaged 1.18 scored and 1.45 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.22 goals from Puebla and 1.81 from Leon. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 50%, against 33%, 29% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Puebla (green) and Leon (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 11 Apr 2026 · Puebla 0–1 Leon
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.