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Eredivisie · Netherlands
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
PSV Eindhoven host Heerenveen in the Eredivisie (Netherlands) on 9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is PSV Eindhoven Win — PSV Eindhoven to win. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 76% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: PSV Eindhoven 2–0 Heerenveen.
Going into the match, PSV Eindhoven had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 28 and conceding 15. Heerenveen had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of PSV Eindhoven's last 10 and 6 of Heerenveen's last 10; 9 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home PSV Eindhoven averaged 3.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Heerenveen averaged 1.88 scored and 1.75 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.22 goals from PSV Eindhoven and 1.50 from Heerenveen. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 25%, against 76%, 15% and 10% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 53%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between PSV Eindhoven (green) and Heerenveen (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | LWDWW | 2.80 | 1.50 | 80% | 90% |
| Heerenveen | WDLDL | 2.10 | 1.70 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven Win | 76% | 1.25 |
| BTTS Yes | 69% | 1.36 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| PSV Eindhoven 1st Half Win | 60% | 1.53 |
| PSV Eindhoven HT & FT | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.