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Segunda División · Chile
Provincial Ovalle vs Deportes Rengo prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Provincial Ovalle host Deportes Rengo in the Segunda División (Chile) on 3 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Provincial Ovalle to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Provincial Ovalle 1–5 Deportes Rengo.
Going into the match, Provincial Ovalle had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 15. Deportes Rengo had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Provincial Ovalle's last 10 and 6 of Deportes Rengo's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Provincial Ovalle averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Deportes Rengo averaged 1.13 scored and 1.25 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.31 goals from Provincial Ovalle and 2.23 from Deportes Rengo. From that it rates a home win at 21%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 57%, against 42%, 28% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 43%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Provincial Ovalle (green) and Deportes Rengo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Provincial Ovalle | WWDDL | 1.00 | 1.50 | 60% | 40% |
| Deportes Rengo | DWDWW | 1.50 | 1.30 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.76 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| Provincial Ovalle Win | 42% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.