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Serie C - Girone C · Italy
Potenza vs AZ Picerno prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Potenza host AZ Picerno in the Serie C - Girone C (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Potenza 4–2 AZ Picerno.
Going into the match, Potenza had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 17. AZ Picerno had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Potenza's last 10 and 7 of AZ Picerno's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Potenza averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded across 9 matches; away from home AZ Picerno averaged 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.74 goals from Potenza and 1.49 from AZ Picerno. From that it rates a home win at 63%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 18%, against 61%, 23% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 93%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Potenza (green) and AZ Picerno (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Potenza | WWDLW | 1.90 | 1.70 | 70% | 70% |
| AZ Picerno | WLLLW | 1.70 | 1.30 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Potenza Win | 61% | 1.48 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 55% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.