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Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Portugalete vs Deportivo Alavés II prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Portugalete host Deportivo Alavés II in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 3 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Portugalete 0–2 Deportivo Alavés II.
Going into the match, Portugalete had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 14. Deportivo Alavés II had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Portugalete's last 10 and 6 of Deportivo Alavés II's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Portugalete averaged 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Deportivo Alavés II averaged 2.17 scored and 1.00 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.09 goals from Portugalete and 1.47 from Deportivo Alavés II. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 45%, against 36%, 30% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Portugalete (green) and Deportivo Alavés II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugalete | LWDWW | 1.60 | 1.40 | 70% | 60% |
| Deportivo Alavés II | WWWLL | 1.90 | 1.10 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.76 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40% | 2.35 |
| Portugalete Win | 36% | 2.50 |
| 1-0 | 12% | 7.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.