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Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Portugalete vs Arosa prediction and preview
1 Nov 2026, 10:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Portugalete host Arosa in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 1 Nov 2026, 10:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Portugalete Win — Portugalete to win. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 53% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Portugalete had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 10. Arosa had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Portugalete's last 10 and 6 of Arosa's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Portugalete averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Arosa averaged 1.17 scored and 0.83 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.56 goals from Portugalete and 1.19 from Arosa. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 28%, against 54%, 25% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 45%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugalete | DDWLL | 1.30 | 1.00 | 50% | 50% |
| Arosa | WLWDD | 1.70 | 1.80 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 69% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| Portugalete Win | 55% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| 2nd Half Higher Goals | 47% | 1.97 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches that day
- Racing Santander II vs Atlético Astorga · 1 Nov 2026, 10:30 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.63