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Portugal vs Norway prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Portugal host Norway in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 4 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Portugal 2–1 Norway.
Going into the match, Portugal had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 8. Norway had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Portugal's last 10 and 10 of Norway's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Portugal averaged 1.86 goals scored and 0.71 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Norway averaged 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.69 goals from Portugal and 1.23 from Norway. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 27%, against 59%, 21% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Portugal (green) and Norway (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Sep 2026 · Norway 1–2 Portugal
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.50 |
| Portugal Win | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.