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EFL Trophy · England
Port Vale vs Mansfield Town prediction and preview
6 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Port Vale host Mansfield Town in the EFL Trophy (England) on 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Port Vale 2–0 Mansfield Town.
Going into the match, Port Vale had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 13. Mansfield Town had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 23 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Port Vale's last 10 and 6 of Mansfield Town's last 10; 2 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Port Vale averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.38 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Mansfield Town averaged 1.45 scored and 1.55 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.03 goals from Port Vale and 1.19 from Mansfield Town. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 21%, against 37%, 25% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 84%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Port Vale (green) and Mansfield Town (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | DLWLL | 0.50 | 1.30 | 30% | 20% |
| Mansfield Town | DDLLW | 1.20 | 2.30 | 60% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.