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League Two · England
Port Vale vs Grimsby prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Port Vale host Grimsby in the League Two (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Port Vale 1–0 Grimsby.
Going into the match, Port Vale had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 13. Grimsby had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Port Vale's last 10 and 6 of Grimsby's last 10; 2 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Port Vale averaged 1.11 goals scored and 0.33 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Grimsby averaged 1.43 scored and 1.07 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.04 goals from Port Vale and 0.72 from Grimsby. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 23%, against 37%, 29% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 90%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Port Vale (green) and Grimsby (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.