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Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Spain
Porreres vs Santanyí prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Porreres host Santanyí in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Porreres to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Porreres 0–1 Santanyí.
Going into the match, Porreres had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 9 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Santanyí had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Porreres's last 9 and 9 of Santanyí's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Porreres averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Santanyí averaged 1.00 scored and 1.14 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.82 goals from Porreres and 1.04 from Santanyí. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 39%, against 49%, 26% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Porreres (green) and Santanyí (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.38 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.79 |
| Porreres Win | 49% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| Porreres HT & FT | 33% | 2.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.