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FAW Championship · Wales
Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major prediction and preview
6 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Pontypridd Town host Llantwit Major in the FAW Championship (Wales) on 6 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Pontypridd Town 4–1 Llantwit Major.
Going into the match, Pontypridd Town had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 17. Llantwit Major had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 8, with 7 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Pontypridd Town's last 10 and 4 of Llantwit Major's last 8; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Pontypridd Town averaged 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Llantwit Major averaged 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.02 goals from Pontypridd Town and 0.94 from Llantwit Major. From that it rates a home win at 78%, a draw at 14% and an away win at 8%, against 55%, 21% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Pontypridd Town (green) and Llantwit Major (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontypridd Town | LWLDW | 2.10 | 1.70 | 80% | 80% |
| Llantwit Major | WWDLL | 0.88 | 2.38 | 50% | 63% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 74% | 1.24 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.49 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Pontypridd Town Win | 55% | 1.65 |
| Pontypridd Town HT & FT | 42% | 2.20 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.