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FAW Championship · Wales
Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Pontypridd Town host Aberystwyth Town in the FAW Championship (Wales) on 3 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.49, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Pontypridd Town 1–3 Aberystwyth Town.
Going into the match, Pontypridd Town had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 9 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 14. Aberystwyth Town had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 9, with 20 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Pontypridd Town's last 9 and 5 of Aberystwyth Town's last 9; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Pontypridd Town averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Aberystwyth Town averaged 2.25 scored and 1.75 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.49 goals from Pontypridd Town and 2.04 from Aberystwyth Town. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 50%, against 37%, 24% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Pontypridd Town (green) and Aberystwyth Town (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontypridd Town | WLDWW | 2.22 | 1.56 | 78% | 78% |
| Aberystwyth Town | DWWWW | 2.22 | 1.11 | 56% | 67% |
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.25 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.49 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.30 |
| Aberystwyth Town Win | 39% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.