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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Pontevedra vs Mérida AD prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Pontevedra host Mérida AD in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Pontevedra 1–2 Mérida AD.
Going into the match, Pontevedra had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 15. Mérida AD had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Pontevedra's last 10 and 3 of Mérida AD's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Pontevedra averaged 2.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Mérida AD averaged 0.50 scored and 1.75 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.00 goals from Pontevedra and 1.28 from Mérida AD. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 23%, against 41%, 31% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 85%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Pontevedra (green) and Mérida AD (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontevedra | LDDLW | 1.70 | 1.50 | 70% | 60% |
| Mérida AD | WLLLL | 1.10 | 2.10 | 30% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
| Pontevedra Win | 42% | 2.15 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.