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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Ponferradina vs Real Avilés prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ponferradina host Real Avilés in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ponferradina 0–2 Real Avilés.
Going into the match, Ponferradina had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Real Avilés had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Ponferradina's last 10 and 8 of Real Avilés's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ponferradina averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.45 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Real Avilés averaged 1.21 scored and 1.36 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.10 goals from Ponferradina and 1.06 from Real Avilés. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 33%, against 51%, 28% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ponferradina (green) and Real Avilés (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina | WDWLD | 1.10 | 1.00 | 40% | 40% |
| Real Avilés | LDDWL | 1.70 | 1.50 | 80% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 1 Aug 2026 · Ponferradina 1–1 Real Avilés
- 9 May 2026 · Ponferradina 3–1 Real Avilés
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.67 |
| Ponferradina Win | 51% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.