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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Ponferradina vs Mirandes prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ponferradina host Mirandes in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ponferradina 1–0 Mirandes.
Going into the match, Ponferradina had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 14. Mirandes had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Ponferradina's last 10 and 3 of Mirandes's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ponferradina averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Mirandes averaged 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.95 goals from Ponferradina and 0.82 from Mirandes. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 36% and an away win at 29%, against 35%, 29% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ponferradina (green) and Mirandes (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina | DWLDW | 1.10 | 1.40 | 50% | 50% |
| Mirandes | WDWWL | 1.30 | 1.10 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| Mirandes Win | 36% | 2.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.