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Poland vs Romania prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Poland host Romania in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 2 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Poland 6–0 Romania.
Going into the match, Poland had won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 7. Romania had won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4, with 6 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Poland's last 4 and 4 of Romania's last 4; 2 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Poland averaged 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 3 matches; away from home Romania averaged 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded across 2.
The 1X2 prices imply about 62% for Poland, 23% for the draw and 15% for Romania once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Poland (green) and Romania (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 4 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Poland Win | 62% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.