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Ekstraklasa · Poland
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Pogon Szczecin host Korona Kielce in the Ekstraklasa (Poland) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Pogon Szczecin 2–0 Korona Kielce.
Going into the match, Pogon Szczecin had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 9. Korona Kielce had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Pogon Szczecin's last 10 and 7 of Korona Kielce's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Pogon Szczecin averaged 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Korona Kielce averaged 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.43 goals from Pogon Szczecin and 0.67 from Korona Kielce. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 16%, against 42%, 28% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 84%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Pogon Szczecin (green) and Korona Kielce (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Szczecin | DWWDL | 1.40 | 0.90 | 60% | 40% |
| Korona Kielce | LWLWD | 1.40 | 1.40 | 70% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.