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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
Poblense vs Castellón II prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Poblense host Castellón II in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Poblense 2–1 Castellón II.
Going into the match, Poblense had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Castellón II had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Poblense's last 10 and 6 of Castellón II's last 10; 3 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Poblense averaged 1.43 goals scored and 0.71 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Castellón II averaged 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.43 goals from Poblense and 1.22 from Castellón II. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 31%, against 41%, 28% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Poblense (green) and Castellón II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poblense | LWLLL | 0.70 | 0.80 | 30% | 30% |
| Castellón II | WWWWL | 1.90 | 1.10 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.39 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.38 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 1.95 |
| Poblense Win | 40% | 2.20 |
| 1-0 | 11% | 8.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.