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Second League - Group 4 · Russia
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod vs Krylya Sovetov II prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod host Krylya Sovetov II in the Second League - Group 4 (Russia) on 4 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 1–2 Krylya Sovetov II.
Going into the match, Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 22. Krylya Sovetov II had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod's last 10 and 3 of Krylya Sovetov II's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod averaged 2.50 goals scored and 1.42 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Krylya Sovetov II averaged 0.77 scored and 1.31 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.85 goals from Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod and 0.96 from Krylya Sovetov II. From that it rates a home win at 57%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 18%, against 50%, 25% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod (green) and Krylya Sovetov II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod | DLLWW | 1.40 | 2.20 | 70% | 60% |
| Krylya Sovetov II | LLLLW | 0.60 | 1.30 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 6 Sep 2026 · Krylya Sovetov II 0–1 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
- 2 Aug 2026 · Krylya Sovetov II 1–1 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
- 24 May 2026 · Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 1–0 Krylya Sovetov II
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.35 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance 12 | 69% | 1.34 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.71 |
| Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod Win | 50% | 1.90 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.