Home › League stats › League One › Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon
League One · England
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Plymouth host AFC Wimbledon in the League One (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Plymouth 2–1 AFC Wimbledon.
Going into the match, Plymouth had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 14. AFC Wimbledon had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Plymouth's last 10 and 3 of AFC Wimbledon's last 10; 6 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Plymouth averaged 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 10 matches; away from home AFC Wimbledon averaged 0.80 scored and 1.50 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.03 goals from Plymouth and 0.62 from AFC Wimbledon. From that it rates a home win at 70%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 9%, against 63%, 22% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Plymouth (green) and AFC Wimbledon (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth | DWLWW | 2.30 | 1.40 | 50% | 60% |
| AFC Wimbledon | DDDWW | 0.70 | 0.90 | 30% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Apr 2026 · AFC Wimbledon 1–3 Plymouth
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 79% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| Plymouth Win | 63% | 1.48 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.