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Segunda División · Uruguay
Plaza Colonia vs Cerrito prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Plaza Colonia host Cerrito in the Segunda División (Uruguay) on 4 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Plaza Colonia to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 76% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Plaza Colonia 1–3 Cerrito.
Going into the match, Plaza Colonia had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 9. Cerrito had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Plaza Colonia's last 10 and 6 of Cerrito's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Plaza Colonia averaged 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Cerrito averaged 1.21 scored and 1.50 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.21 goals from Plaza Colonia and 1.00 from Cerrito. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 29%, against 48%, 28% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Plaza Colonia (green) and Cerrito (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaza Colonia | WDDLW | 1.30 | 0.90 | 60% | 40% |
| Cerrito | LWDDW | 1.30 | 1.10 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 28 Jun 2026 · Cerrito 1–0 Plaza Colonia
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.31 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Plaza Colonia Win | 48% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.25 |
| Plaza Colonia HT & FT | 31% | 3.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.