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Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Spain
Platges Calvià vs Migjorn prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Platges Calvià host Migjorn in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 (Spain) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Platges Calvià Win — Platges Calvià to win. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Platges Calvià 3–1 Migjorn.
Going into the match, Platges Calvià had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 9 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 10. Migjorn had won 1, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 4, with 3 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Platges Calvià's last 9 and 2 of Migjorn's last 4; 6 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Platges Calvià averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Migjorn averaged 0.50 scored and 3.00 conceded across 2.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.44 goals from Platges Calvià and 0.63 from Migjorn. From that it rates a home win at 77%, a draw at 17% and an away win at 7%, against 64%, 22% and 14% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Platges Calvià (green) and Migjorn (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platges Calvià | WWLLL | 1.56 | 1.11 | 44% | 67% |
| Migjorn | WLLL | 0.75 | 2.25 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 69% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.42 |
| Platges Calvià Win | 64% | 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Platges Calvià HT & FT | 44% | 2.10 |
| 1-0 | 14% | 6.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.