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Ettan - Norra · Sweden
Piteå vs IF Karlstad prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Piteå host IF Karlstad in the Ettan - Norra (Sweden) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Piteå 1–1 IF Karlstad.
Going into the match, Piteå had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 14. IF Karlstad had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Piteå's last 10 and 7 of IF Karlstad's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Piteå averaged 1.08 goals scored and 2.15 conceded across 13 matches; away from home IF Karlstad averaged 1.77 scored and 1.08 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.04 goals from Piteå and 1.65 from IF Karlstad. From that it rates a home win at 23%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 50%, against 21%, 24% and 56% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Piteå (green) and IF Karlstad (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piteå | WWLLW | 1.30 | 1.40 | 50% | 50% |
| IF Karlstad | DDDLL | 1.20 | 1.60 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| IF Karlstad Win | 56% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.