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Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Piratas host Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Liga de Expansión MX (Mexico) on 4 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Piratas Win — Piratas to win. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Piratas 4–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
Going into the match, Piratas had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 10. Alebrijes de Oaxaca had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Piratas's last 10 and 4 of Alebrijes de Oaxaca's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Piratas averaged 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Alebrijes de Oaxaca averaged 1.17 scored and 2.17 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.15 goals from Piratas and 0.62 from Alebrijes de Oaxaca. From that it rates a home win at 72%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 8%, against 71%, 17% and 12% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Piratas (green) and Alebrijes de Oaxaca (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piratas | LWDWD | 1.20 | 1.00 | 40% | 40% |
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca | LLWLD | 0.80 | 1.80 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.33 |
| Piratas Win | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.49 |
| BTTS No | 57% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Piratas HT & FT | 50% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.