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Serie C - Girone B · Italy
Perugia vs Vado prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Perugia host Vado in the Serie C - Girone B (Italy) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Perugia 0–2 Vado.
Going into the match, Perugia had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 15. Vado had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Perugia's last 10 and 3 of Vado's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Perugia averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Vado averaged 1.56 scored and 1.67 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.40 goals from Perugia and 1.29 from Vado. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 33%, against 53%, 28% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Perugia (green) and Vado (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 60% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| Perugia Win | 54% | 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.