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Liga 1 · Indonesia
Persebaya Surabaya vs PSS Sleman prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 08:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Persebaya Surabaya host PSS Sleman in the Liga 1 (Indonesia) on 18 Oct 2026, 08:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.62, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Persebaya Surabaya 2–2 PSS Sleman.
Going into the match, Persebaya Surabaya had won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 6. PSS Sleman had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 9, with 14 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Persebaya Surabaya's last 10 and 6 of PSS Sleman's last 9; 2 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Persebaya Surabaya averaged 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded across 10 matches; away from home PSS Sleman averaged 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.88 goals from Persebaya Surabaya and 0.76 from PSS Sleman. From that it rates a home win at 63%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 13%, against 56%, 24% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 49%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Persebaya Surabaya (green) and PSS Sleman (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persebaya Surabaya | WDWDD | 1.20 | 0.60 | 50% | 20% |
| PSS Sleman | WLLLD | 1.56 | 1.33 | 67% | 78% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 76% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| Persebaya Surabaya Win | 58% | 1.60 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.59 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Persebaya Surabaya HT & FT | 39% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 23% | 3.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga 1 matches that day
- Persib Bandung vs Persik Kediri · 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Liga 1
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.60