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Serie C - Girone A · Italy
Pergolettese vs Athletic Carpi prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Pergolettese host Athletic Carpi in the Serie C - Girone A (Italy) on 10 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Pergolettese to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Pergolettese 2–1 Athletic Carpi.
Going into the match, Pergolettese had won 1, drawn 7 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Athletic Carpi had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Pergolettese's last 10 and 7 of Athletic Carpi's last 10; 1 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Pergolettese averaged 0.83 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Athletic Carpi averaged 1.00 scored and 1.63 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.16 goals from Pergolettese and 0.89 from Athletic Carpi. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 27%, against 43%, 30% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Pergolettese (green) and Athletic Carpi (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pergolettese | DDDDW | 0.40 | 0.60 | 20% | 10% |
| Athletic Carpi | LLDDL | 1.40 | 2.00 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 72% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Pergolettese Win | 42% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.