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Premier League · Wales
Penybont vs Barry Town prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Penybont host Barry Town in the Premier League (Wales) on 9 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Penybont 3–1 Barry Town.
Going into the match, Penybont had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 9. Barry Town had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Penybont's last 10 and 7 of Barry Town's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Penybont averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Barry Town averaged 2.11 scored and 1.44 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.84 goals from Penybont and 1.18 from Barry Town. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 23%, against 51%, 25% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Penybont (green) and Barry Town (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penybont | LWWWW | 2.00 | 0.90 | 60% | 60% |
| Barry Town | WLLDW | 2.20 | 1.70 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.