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Campionato · San Marino
Pennarossa vs Folgore prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Pennarossa host Folgore in the Campionato (San Marino) on 9 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Pennarossa 1–5 Folgore.
Going into the match, Pennarossa had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 9 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 20. Folgore had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 26 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Pennarossa's last 9 and 4 of Folgore's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Pennarossa averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Folgore averaged 2.80 scored and 1.20 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.05 goals from Pennarossa and 3.51 from Folgore. From that it rates a home win at 7%, a draw at 11% and an away win at 82%, against 13%, 18% and 69% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Pennarossa (green) and Folgore (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennarossa | WLWLL | 1.33 | 2.22 | 56% | 67% |
| Folgore | WWWWW | 2.60 | 0.90 | 40% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.24 |
| Folgore Win | 69% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.79 |
| Folgore HT & FT | 49% | 1.91 |
| 0-3 | 11% | 8.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.