Penarol vs Progreso prediction and preview

The PunterPick prediction

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Penarol host Progreso in the Primera División (Uruguay) on 10 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Penarol Win — Penarol to win. It was published at odds of 1.38, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Penarol 1–1 Progreso.

Going into the match, Penarol had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 8. Progreso had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 14 conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of Penarol's last 10 and 5 of Progreso's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Penarol averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Progreso averaged 0.77 scored and 1.46 conceded across 13.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.72 goals from Penarol and 0.60 from Progreso. From that it rates a home win at 64%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 12%, against 66%, 21% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Penarol (green) and Progreso (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Form before the match

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.

More on this match

• Penarol form and statistics
• Progreso form and statistics
• Primera División statistics