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Segunda Liga · Portugal
Penafiel vs AVS prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Penafiel host AVS in the Segunda Liga (Portugal) on 9 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Penafiel to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Penafiel 1–2 AVS.
Going into the match, Penafiel had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 15. AVS had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Penafiel's last 10 and 4 of AVS's last 10; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Penafiel averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.13 conceded across 8 matches; away from home AVS averaged 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.01 goals from Penafiel and 1.20 from AVS. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 39%, against 49%, 28% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Penafiel (green) and AVS (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.70 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 50% | 1.80 |
| Penafiel Win | 48% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.