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Liga Revelação U23 · Portugal
Penafiel U23 vs Benfica U23 prediction and preview
13 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Penafiel U23 host Benfica U23 in the Liga Revelação U23 (Portugal) on 13 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Penafiel U23 3–1 Benfica U23.
Going into the match, Penafiel U23 had won 0, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 7 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Benfica U23 had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Penafiel U23's last 7 and 6 of Benfica U23's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Penafiel U23 averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 3 matches; away from home Benfica U23 averaged 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.58 goals from Penafiel U23 and 1.34 from Benfica U23. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 31%, against 32%, 25% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Penafiel U23 (green) and Benfica U23 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel U23 | LDLDD | 1.29 | 1.57 | 71% | 43% |
| Benfica U23 | WWWLL | 1.40 | 1.30 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 74% | 1.23 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.54 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Benfica U23 Win | 43% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.