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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
Peña Deportiva vs Orihuela prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Peña Deportiva host Orihuela in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.64, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Peña Deportiva 3–1 Orihuela.
Going into the match, Peña Deportiva had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 18. Orihuela had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Peña Deportiva's last 10 and 6 of Orihuela's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Peña Deportiva averaged 2.63 goals scored and 1.13 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Orihuela averaged 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.05 goals from Peña Deportiva and 1.17 from Orihuela. From that it rates a home win at 57%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 20%, against 36%, 27% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Peña Deportiva (green) and Orihuela (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peña Deportiva | LLLDL | 1.40 | 1.80 | 60% | 50% |
| Orihuela | LLDDW | 1.20 | 1.80 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 69% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.43 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.64 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.85 |
| Orihuela Win | 37% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.