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Türkiye Kupası · Turkey
Pazarspor vs Erbaaspor prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Pazarspor host Erbaaspor in the Türkiye Kupası (Turkey) on 7 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Erbaaspor to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Pazarspor 3–1 Erbaaspor.
Going into the match, Pazarspor had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 7 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 3. Erbaaspor had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 9, with 15 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Pazarspor's last 7 and 6 of Erbaaspor's last 9; 2 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Pazarspor averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Erbaaspor averaged 1.25 scored and 2.00 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.19 goals from Pazarspor and 1.13 from Erbaaspor. From that it rates a home win at 77%, a draw at 14% and an away win at 9%, against 29%, 26% and 45% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 23%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Pazarspor (green) and Erbaaspor (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.23 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.54 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Erbaaspor Win | 45% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| Erbaaspor HT & FT | 29% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.