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Serie C · Brazil
Paysandu vs Ferroviária prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Paysandu host Ferroviária in the Serie C (Brazil) on 3 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Paysandu 1–0 Ferroviária.
Going into the match, Paysandu had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 17. Ferroviária had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Paysandu's last 10 and 5 of Ferroviária's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Paysandu averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.47 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Ferroviária averaged 1.08 scored and 0.85 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.14 goals from Paysandu and 1.19 from Ferroviária. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 36%, against 40%, 30% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Paysandu (green) and Ferroviária (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paysandu | LDLLL | 1.00 | 1.70 | 50% | 60% |
| Ferroviária | DWWDW | 1.80 | 1.00 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 13 Sep 2026 · Ferroviária 1–0 Paysandu
- 18 Aug 2026 · Ferroviária 4–0 Paysandu
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
| Paysandu Win | 40% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.