Parma W vs Fiorentina W prediction and preview

25 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.30Market probability 72%Final score 1–2

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Parma W host Fiorentina W in the Serie A Women (Italy) on 25 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Parma W 1–2 Fiorentina W.

Going into the match, Parma W had won 0, drawn 2 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 19. Fiorentina W had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 14 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of Parma W's last 10 and 6 of Fiorentina W's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Parma W averaged 0.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Fiorentina W averaged 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded across 5.

Our team-strength model expects about 0.79 goals from Parma W and 1.65 from Fiorentina W. From that it rates a home win at 17%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 57%, against 23%, 26% and 51% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Parma W (green) and Fiorentina W (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form20% – 80%

Attack25% – 75%

Defence38% – 63%

Head-to-head20% – 80%

Goals22% – 78%

Overall strength30% – 70%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Parma W	LLDLL	0.50	1.90	50%	50%
Fiorentina W	DWLLW	1.50	1.40	60%	60%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 12	73%	1.25
Over 1.5 Goals	72%	1.30
Under 3.5 Goals	72%	1.30
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	68%	1.36
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	66%	1.40
Fiorentina W Win	52%	1.75
BTTS Yes	51%	1.83
Under 2.5 Goals	51%	1.85

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.