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Ligue 1 · France
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon prediction and preview
26 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Paris Saint Germain host Lyon in the Ligue 1 (France) on 26 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Paris Saint Germain Win — Paris Saint Germain to win. It was published at odds of 1.42, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Paris Saint Germain had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 28 and conceding 14. Lyon had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Paris Saint Germain's last 10 and 7 of Lyon's last 10; 9 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Paris Saint Germain averaged 2.46 goals scored and 1.31 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Lyon averaged 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.04 goals from Paris Saint Germain and 1.35 from Lyon. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 24%, against 67%, 17% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 53%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Paris Saint Germain (green) and Lyon (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | WWWWW | 2.80 | 1.40 | 90% | 90% |
| Lyon | LWWLW | 1.70 | 1.30 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Apr 2026 · Paris Saint Germain 1–2 Lyon
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| Paris Saint Germain Win | 67% | 1.42 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 51% | 1.80 |
| Paris Saint Germain HT & FT | 47% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.