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Ligue 1 · France
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Paris Saint Germain host Le Mans in the Ligue 1 (France) on 10 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS No — at least one side to fail to score. It was published at odds of 1.75, which the bookmaker market rated at about 54% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Le Mans.
Going into the match, Paris Saint Germain had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 14. Le Mans had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Paris Saint Germain's last 10 and 8 of Le Mans's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Paris Saint Germain averaged 2.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Le Mans averaged 1.25 scored and 1.13 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.80 goals from Paris Saint Germain and 0.82 from Le Mans. From that it rates a home win at 78%, a draw at 15% and an away win at 8%, against 88%, 8% and 5% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 47%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Paris Saint Germain (green) and Le Mans (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | WWWLD | 1.70 | 1.40 | 70% | 70% |
| Le Mans | LWDDL | 1.40 | 1.50 | 80% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain HT & FT | 71% | 1.36 |
| Paris Saint Germain 1st Half Win | 69% | 1.33 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.75 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.