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Super League 1 · Greece
PAOK vs Kalamata prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
PAOK host Kalamata in the Super League 1 (Greece) on 12 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: PAOK 1–3 Kalamata.
Going into the match, PAOK had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 12. Kalamata had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 9, with 15 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of PAOK's last 10 and 6 of Kalamata's last 9; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home PAOK averaged 2.15 goals scored and 0.92 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Kalamata averaged 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.57 goals from PAOK and 1.24 from Kalamata. From that it rates a home win at 65%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 16%, against 79%, 13% and 8% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between PAOK (green) and Kalamata (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| PAOK Win | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.48 |
| PAOK 1st Half Win | 59% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| PAOK HT & FT | 58% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.