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CONMEBOL Libertadores · International
Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction and preview
22 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Palmeiras host Fluminense in the CONMEBOL Libertadores (International) on 22 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Palmeiras Win — Palmeiras to win. It was published at odds of 1.65, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Palmeiras 0–1 Fluminense.
Going into the match, Palmeiras had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 5. Fluminense had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Palmeiras's last 10 and 6 of Fluminense's last 10; 3 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Palmeiras averaged 1.83 goals scored and 0.56 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Fluminense averaged 0.94 scored and 1.29 conceded across 17.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.61 goals from Palmeiras and 0.69 from Fluminense. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 15%, against 57%, 26% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Palmeiras (green) and Fluminense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | WWWWD | 1.40 | 0.50 | 30% | 30% |
| Fluminense | LLLWW | 1.70 | 1.40 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 15 Oct 2026 · Fluminense 1–2 Palmeiras
- 15 Aug 2026 · Fluminense 3–2 Palmeiras
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 58% | 1.62 |
| Palmeiras Win | 56% | 1.65 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.