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Serie A · Brazil
Palmeiras vs Corinthians prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Palmeiras host Corinthians in the Serie A (Brazil) on 11 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Palmeiras Win — Palmeiras to win. It was published at odds of 1.65, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Palmeiras 4–1 Corinthians.
Going into the match, Palmeiras had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 5. Corinthians had won 1, drawn 1 and lost 8 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Palmeiras's last 10 and 7 of Corinthians's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Palmeiras averaged 1.71 goals scored and 0.53 conceded across 17 matches; away from home Corinthians averaged 1.06 scored and 1.12 conceded across 17.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.97 goals from Palmeiras and 0.61 from Corinthians. From that it rates a home win at 69%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 10%, against 58%, 26% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Palmeiras (green) and Corinthians (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | WDLWW | 1.40 | 0.50 | 30% | 30% |
| Corinthians | LLLLD | 0.80 | 1.60 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 13 Apr 2026 · Corinthians 0–0 Palmeiras
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Palmeiras Win | 59% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.