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Serie A · Brazil
Palmeiras vs Bahia prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Palmeiras host Bahia in the Serie A (Brazil) on 9 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Palmeiras Win — Palmeiras to win. It was published at odds of 1.55, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Palmeiras 1–0 Bahia.
Going into the match, Palmeiras had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 5. Bahia had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Palmeiras's last 10 and 7 of Bahia's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Palmeiras averaged 1.75 goals scored and 0.56 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Bahia averaged 1.42 scored and 1.67 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.97 goals from Palmeiras and 0.79 from Bahia. From that it rates a home win at 64%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 13%, against 61%, 23% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Palmeiras (green) and Bahia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 79% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Palmeiras Win | 61% | 1.55 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.