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NB I · Hungary
Paks vs MTK Budapest prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Paks host MTK Budapest in the NB I (Hungary) on 10 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Paks to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Paks 3–0 MTK Budapest.
Going into the match, Paks had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 20. MTK Budapest had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Paks's last 10 and 7 of MTK Budapest's last 10; 7 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Paks averaged 2.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 12 matches; away from home MTK Budapest averaged 1.86 scored and 1.71 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.89 goals from Paks and 1.71 from MTK Budapest. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 21%, against 44%, 25% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Paks (green) and MTK Budapest (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paks | WWLDW | 2.00 | 2.00 | 80% | 70% |
| MTK Budapest | LWLDW | 2.00 | 1.40 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 51% | 1.80 |
| Paks Win | 45% | 2.10 |
| Paks HT & FT | 29% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 23% | 3.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.