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AFC Champions League Elite · International
Pakhtakor vs Al-Qadisiyah FC prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 13:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Pakhtakor host Al-Qadisiyah FC in the AFC Champions League Elite (International) on 12 Oct 2026, 13:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Pakhtakor 1–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Going into the match, Pakhtakor had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 7. Al-Qadisiyah FC had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 28 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Pakhtakor's last 10 and 5 of Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Pakhtakor averaged 2.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Al-Qadisiyah FC averaged 2.64 scored and 0.45 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.97 goals from Pakhtakor and 1.31 from Al-Qadisiyah FC. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 43%, against 18%, 21% and 61% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Pakhtakor (green) and Al-Qadisiyah FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakhtakor | WWDWW | 1.80 | 0.70 | 60% | 60% |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC | WWDWW | 2.80 | 0.90 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.40 |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC Win | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.73 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.